Erdogan overcomes ill health as Turkish elections set to go to the wire

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and wife Emine Erdogan greet supporters during a rally ahead of the May 14 elections, in Izmir, Turkey April 29, 2023. (Reuters)
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  • President returns to campaign trail but challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu ahead in some polls
  • Incumbent likely to stage 鈥榖ig and attractive meetings鈥� to regain lost ground, analyst says

ANKARA: Turkiye is facing one of the most competitive elections in its political history with both presidential and parliamentary polls set to be held on May 14.

After President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was forced to postpone his campaigning last week due to a reported intestinal infection 鈥� he fell ill during a live interview 鈥� questions were raised as to how his health might affect his popularity among voters.

Since undergoing intestinal surgery in 2011, the 69-year-old鈥檚 health has been often subject to false reporting.

The latest upset meant Erdogan was forced to inaugurate the activation of a Russian-built nuclear power plant on Thursday via a video link.

But after a few days鈥� rest, he was back on the scene on Friday at Teknofest, a major aerospace and technology event, alongside Azerbaijan鈥檚 President Ilham Aliyev and Libya鈥檚 Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh.

Erdogan鈥檚 main opposition in the election is 74-year-old Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Both men have campaigned hard in recent weeks, holding daily rallies across the country.

鈥淓rdogan鈥檚 voters have probably lost their morale a little, since he鈥檚 a charismatic leader who easily gathers people around him,鈥� Hurcan Asli Aksoy, deputy head of the Berlin-based Center for Applied Turkey Studies at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told Arab News.

鈥�(But) Erdogan will try to attend and organize big and attractive meetings to regain their attention,鈥� she added.

Erdogan has been in power for two decades and is seeking a third presidential term but the latest polls give Kilicdaroglu a narrow lead.

The challenger鈥檚 campaign has focused on the public鈥檚 discontent at Turkiye鈥檚 鈥渙ne-man鈥� rule and proposes to replace it with a more democratic system. He has also promised to bring wealth and prosperity to Turkey amid an economic recession.

Kilicdaroglu recently pledged to introduce a five-year ban on foreigners buying property in Turkiye to help ease a long-running housing crisis.

鈥淲ithin a year, rent prices increased by 197 percent. The minimum wage is 8,500 lira ($437) while the average rent for a house is 7,400 lira,鈥� he said.

According to a survey by Turkish firm Konda that was leaked on social media, Erdogan won 43 percent of the votes in the first round against Kilicdaroglu鈥檚 42 percent. But in the second round, the challenger secured 51 percent to Erdogan鈥檚 49 percent.

During his campaign rallies, which drew large crowds even in conservative strongholds, Kilicdaroglu was accompanied by potential vice presidents Ekrem Imamoglu and Mansur Yavas, the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara respectively.

Osman Sert, research director of polling firm Panoramatr, said Kilicdaroglu was showing he had wide appeal among voters, from the center-left to the center and nationalist groups, as well as those with Islamist tendencies.

鈥淏oth Imamoglu and Yavas have helped him during his electoral campaign and they appeal to large crowds because they represent the center and nationalistic tendencies within Turkish society,鈥� he told Arab News.

鈥淎s the opposition conducts his campaign with several actors under the same bloc, they have been able to hold rallies across 10 cities on the same day. But, their campaign still lacks a main message.鈥�

In contrast, the Erdogan camp was using identity politics to win over voters, but the leader鈥檚 absence had hampered this approach, Sert said.

鈥淎s the three-day sickness of Erdogan revealed, the government, in contrast to the opposition bloc, does not have any backup actors who can overcome the short-term absences of the leader,鈥� he said.

鈥淭he only political actor who could generate rhetoric during the campaign is Erdogan and when he is not on the campaign field, the void can鈥檛 be filled, because in Turkiye political power has become extremely centralized around Erdogan.鈥�

While Erdogan was recuperating, Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu attracted criticism by referring to the upcoming elections as the 鈥淲est鈥檚 political coup attempt鈥� against the current regime.

But Sert said the president鈥檚 brief absence was unlikely to have had a major effect on his ratings.

鈥淪uch short-term disappearances can happen in any country and it is totally understandable that it can fuel some speculations and concerns,鈥� he said. 鈥淏ut this time it was not for a long duration and it did not change voter preferences to a significant degree.鈥�

The race was still neck and neck, he said.

Erdogan on Saturday delivered a 40-minute speech to voters in the western province of Izmir 鈥� an opposition stronghold 鈥� helping dispel concerns about the state of his health.